Forex Signals – EUR/USD Triangle Trading

Yesterday Recap: 120 pips off some picture perfect trading yesterday as the pair bounced off the top of our pennant, kicking up bearish CP signals on all timeframes. The pair then made a clean bounce off an interim rising trend support (lower red line on today's chart) as expected, prompting me to close my short and await further signals. I ignored bullish signals at the rising support because they are in the middle of the pennant channel (though if you took them that would be another +60 pips for you).

Daily Outlook: Australia's bank raised their interest rates early this morning prompting a strong rise in the Aussie as it again tries to stay above 1.00 (parity). I don't think the pair has the strength to stand too far above parity for too long, but I'll wait for better signals before I test that assertion.

For the EUR/USD today I anticipate a "quiet before the storm" today as the markets away the barrage of fundamental data coming out Wednesday (interest rates, QE2 news and unemployment data, oh my). The pair is still well within its daily bullish pennant and skipping along interim support (red rising support on chart below). I prefer buying at the bottom of the pennant, but will watch for sell signals at the top and on a break of the interim support.

As always CandlePro users can check multiple pairs/timeframes for intraday candlestick signals and you should watch out for news events on the forex calendar.

Trading Idea: Primary trade will be a long near the bottom of the pennant with candle confirmation. Bottom is currently around 1.3750 and long targets from here will be 1.3775, 3800, 3830 and 3860 for 110 pips profit.

A more aggressive short would be a sell on a break below 1.3850 as the pair makes another challenge for the bottom of the pennant at 1.3750 (100 pips).

Finally another agressive short is a sell near the top of the the pennant, currently around 1.40. This will be a tough trade for me to take as the formation is bullish, the long-term trend is up and the interim rising support suggests bull strength, but if you know something I don't there is a good risk/reward here targeting the bottom of the pennant at 1.3850 for 150 pips.

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  1. Profile photo of Gav
    Gav
    November 2, 2010 at 07:07Reply

    GM Mark and thanks for the signal. Looks like a fun week ahead with all the news. :0

  2. p.manikandan
    November 2, 2010 at 07:08Reply

    thank you

  3. mahdavi
    November 2, 2010 at 07:16Reply

    Unfortunately, all data of my smart system destroyed and I had to prepare it again all the day long.
    my smart system takes 3 or 4 day to be able to predict.
    I am training it again.
    But for today the sell signal is indicated. 1.384 can be a good short target. it will go around 1.380 and then it will come back for a while.
    because of the destroyed data, the output of it is unreliable but as dear piphut says, the sell signal will be a good idea.

  4. Profile photo of PipHut Team
    PipHut Team
    November 2, 2010 at 08:07Reply

    tip: if you ever feel like you are out of synch with the market then you are looking at the wrong timeframe – there are trend and forces pushing on your timeframe that you need to zoom out to see.

  5. Johnny
    November 2, 2010 at 08:53Reply

    European PMI at the top of the hour. Analysts are expecting a reading of 53 for October, down from 53.8 in September, but the market will be looking to see if Europe can follow the US, UK and China and have a stronger reading

  6. Johnny
    November 2, 2010 at 08:56Reply

    German October PMI comes in better than expected at 56.6 vs the consensus of 56.1.

    • Johnny
      November 2, 2010 at 09:01Reply

      European PMI fopr October 54.6 vs. exp. 54.1

  7. saharawiew
    November 2, 2010 at 09:12Reply

    h johnny

  8. saharawiew
    November 2, 2010 at 09:13Reply

    ths area seems bigR lets see

    • Johnny
      November 2, 2010 at 09:23Reply

      Hi Sahara, correct – this is stronghold here. But I guess it goes Full Speed Ahead, Ay Ay Sir !!! :-)

  9. Johnny
    November 2, 2010 at 09:29Reply

    Stops Done above 1.3970 in EUR/USD
    By Peter Anderson || November 2, 2010 at 09:21 GMT
    || 0 comments || Add comment
    The weak stops have just been tripped in EUR/USD above 1.3970 with the pair making a fresh intraday high at 1.3985. Repeated failures above 1.40 might keep that level safe but the lack of retracement (really at any stage since the RBA rate hike) possibly warns of more topside probing. EUR/USD last trades at 1.3980.

  10. mubeen
    November 2, 2010 at 09:29Reply

    Hi Johnny, well i just closed my yestr long for +90 pips. thats good any way.

    • Johnny
      November 2, 2010 at 09:32Reply

      Hello Mubeen. Good job making some pips :-) But there’s more to come, I am expacting to fill my little bag with another 100 pips today :-)

      • mubeen
        November 2, 2010 at 09:58Reply

        Go ahead my friend!!!

        • Dick Helder
          November 2, 2010 at 11:54Reply

          Dick Helder here. Well considering avridge range of Euro Dollar is 100 pips thats not bad result. Hehe. But there was not 100 pip long to be had yesterday! So how have you got in ze trade at 13863 I am wundering?? Nonbody can get in at extream points of ze market. Please just tell truth or nothing at all…

          • Dick Helder
            November 2, 2010 at 11:57

            I got 20,000 pips this week haahahahaaahha!!

  11. Johnny
    November 2, 2010 at 09:36Reply

    POUND EXTENDS DROP VS EURO AND DOLLAR AFTER WEAKER CONSTRUCTION DATA

    • Johnny
      November 2, 2010 at 09:38Reply

      IRISH-GERMAN 10-YEAR BOND SPREAD CLIMBS TO RECORD 473 BPS

  12. Johnny
    November 2, 2010 at 09:50Reply

    Chatter making the rounds regarding stops on several dealers books just above 1.4000.

  13. Tosin
    November 2, 2010 at 10:04Reply

    Hi, thanks for the free signals and tutorials. You are doing a great, great job here, I appreciate every bit of info you are putting out here, thanks.

    What is the best trading time zone for someone in West Africa? It is 8.00am GMT – 4.00pmGMT? I will really appreciate your input. I know I can trust your response.

    Thanks.

  14. Profile photo of jumar
    jumar
    November 2, 2010 at 10:12Reply

    is that reach 1.40?

  15. Johnny
    November 2, 2010 at 10:18Reply

    In abt 10 minutes :-)

  16. mubeen
    November 2, 2010 at 11:00Reply

    Market is expected to remain quiet for now.My view

  17. Johnny
    November 2, 2010 at 11:25Reply

    True my friend Mubeen. The quiet before the Storm :-) All in Waiting Mode today. Anyway we may dip a bit but may see above 1,40 when US opens. Lets see :-)

  18. ravi
    November 2, 2010 at 12:37Reply

    I am really happy…. enjoy……. :)

  19. Johnny
    November 2, 2010 at 13:20Reply

    @SAHARA Seems we can make reservation for our rooms at 1,41 :-) May still be getting my 100 pips today after all :-)

  20. Profile photo of sahara
    sahara
    November 2, 2010 at 13:22Reply

    not in the same floor just for few hours i paid for a room in others floors ; let me “finishing” with this room (number 4040)

  21. Johnny
    November 2, 2010 at 13:27Reply

    Just to your information my friend:

    EUR/USD getting more comfortable on 1.40 handle after breaking resistance
    By Jamie Coleman || November 2, 2010 at 13:02 GMT
    || 0 comments || Add comment
    EUR/USD broke resistance at 1.4018 (the line drawn off the 1.4160 and 1.4080 highs). consolidating above that level will give the euro fresh impetus to make a run for the top of the recent ranges. 1.4042 has been the high so far.

  22. Johnny
    November 2, 2010 at 13:31Reply

    @SAHARA Almost filled the tank, ready to take off :-) My target set on 4080 , lets see if Bully can do his trick again :-)

    • mubeen
      November 2, 2010 at 13:51Reply

      Well done Johnny!!! Cheeeeerssss for you.

      • Johnny
        November 2, 2010 at 14:00Reply

        @MUBEEN Its that funny sound in my PC that warns me my friend :-)

        • mubeen
          November 2, 2010 at 14:14Reply

          :-))

  23. Big Steve
    November 2, 2010 at 13:41Reply

    The Fed polled the big boys. The big boys want half a trillion in QE2. It is expected that the Fed will follow their advice.

    • Johnny
      November 2, 2010 at 13:49Reply

      The Big Boys should go and play with their toys (or their little toes) and let us make the couple of pips we deserve … :-)

  24. Johnny
    November 2, 2010 at 13:47Reply

    Should get a further boost once it clears 1.4050 selling interest… look for a move up to 1.4075/80, where additional selling interest is reported

  25. Johnny
    November 2, 2010 at 13:51Reply

    BIS selling a bit of EUR/USD into strength
    By Jamie Coleman || November 2, 2010 at 13:48 GMT
    || 0 comments || Add comment
    Central banks continue to job EUR/USD like mad, buying on dips onto the 1.37 and 1.38 handles and selling on rallies above 1.40. We hear the BIS is selling some now near session highs…

  26. Johnny
    November 2, 2010 at 15:58Reply

    Suspicious package found at Chancellor Merkel’s office
    By Jamie Coleman || November 2, 2010 at 15:05 GMT
    || 1 comment || Add comment
    Not a good week to be working in the mailroom…

  27. Johnny
    November 2, 2010 at 15:59Reply

    And….I kinda liked the comment from Annie on the above :-)

    Bombs are being found all over Europe, the credit spreads are widening, Greece Deputy PM said ” Debt is made for restructuring”. But the important thing is the dollar is trash because of QE

  28. Johnny
    November 2, 2010 at 16:04Reply

    @MUBEEN Fireworks are coming up soon….(Not real big time, but still :-))

  29. Johnny
    November 2, 2010 at 16:05Reply

    (RTTNews) – The euro pushed higher against most majors on Tuesday, as rising stocks fueled increased risk appetite.

    The expected announcement of further quantitative easing from the US Federal Reserve on Wednesday continues to weigh on the dollar.

    Also, surprise interest rate hikes in Australia and India fueled speculation that the European Central Bank, which has signaled its inclination to fight inflation, will lean toward tightening policy, in contrast to the easing measures taken in the US.

    The euro rose to $1.4050 versus the dollar, a little more than a penny from a recent 8-month high of $1.4158.

    Against the yen, the euro rose to Y113, having bounced back and forth around that mark for the past few weeks.

    The euro improved to 0.8750 against the sterling, bouncing back toward a 6-month peak of 0.8940.

    Eurozone manufacturing activity improved more than initially estimated in October, survey results from Markit Economics showed Tuesday. Strong growth of output as well as new orders boosted overall manufacturing from an eight-month low.

    The final Purchasing Managers’ Index, or PMI, for October rose to 54.6 from September’s eight-month low of 53.7. The latest reading was higher than its flash estimate of 54.1 and also stayed above the neutral 50 level.

    Elsewhere, some of the members of the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy board believed that further stimulus measures might do more harm than good, minutes from the bank’s October 4-5 meeting revealed on Tuesday.

    However, some of the policy board members said that an unchecked rise from the yen would almost certainly weigh on the economy. The yen has soared to near a record high versus the dollar, threatening the nation’s competitive advantage over the US.

  30. Profile photo of sahara
    sahara
    November 2, 2010 at 16:11Reply

    Japan made same thing in 2001 (QE) look resultats ;; now fr states with jobless (near 9.5%) (job half time) they needs Banks help economy ( more monney “credit” for persons and firms) a big idea; will work ?? that s the quetion

  31. Profile photo of sahara
    sahara
    November 2, 2010 at 16:23Reply

    the question is how much (between 500 and 1000 MD) but will be enough dont think (for banks was near 2 b $) but not same thing to wk up economy not monney is “the key” even by hundreds MD $ … a big discussion

    • Johnny
      November 2, 2010 at 16:34Reply

      Time will tell :-) But is there that much time left still?

      Gonna prepare my dinner (Need to find a solution for that, jealous on you guys who’s dinner is been served…:-)) Catch you later

  32. BrenDon
    November 2, 2010 at 16:52Reply

    Nice copy and paste lol.

    Check out the pros !!

    U were rude not replying, my turn !!

    • Johnny
      November 2, 2010 at 17:07Reply

      @BRENDON Dont get upset my friend. Usually I do reply, but I was late home last night (I do have a business to look after still, eventhought it aint that big!)
      Yes, Pro’s , and other sources…I place them in here for thos (poor, but willing and probably able, guys that like to place a trade too but have lack/failure of decent internet or do not know these sites. Any objections please? If so I will refrain from posting any longer, it safes time by not doing so inwhich I can atend to other things!)
      About your y/day’s question. Kayus, Sahara and myself we are joining here in Piphut already for some time. Does that mean we are experienced traders? Well, I cant speak for the other two but as for me…I’m a veteran in FX and know a little bit about it. (Playing nickels & dimes only, as I merely do it for the fun) …But, No I am not! I think you only could say that Mark is a real Pro.
      That’s the reason I did not come back on you question to be frank.
      I have a good understanding with most of the guys in here and I do crack a joke every now and then as I think that must be possible too in here.
      Good luck to you Brendon and take care.

  33. Profile photo of sahara
    sahara
    November 2, 2010 at 17:25Reply

    @johnny piphutter is our house from a few months we learn we study with what Mark do all the day(i think him a lot) second piphutters here have the word “help” in ” blood” that s why y send i send comments to work together and understand more then continue my friend and others to be here in this fprum i can “say” for me what this forum gives to me ; that s why it s with big “pleasure” i continue to be here ;; we need to joke too it s hard this big field ; (sorry i want to say more but my english is just stopped me here ) other things with piphut forum i speack and write better english double “happy”

    • Johnny
      November 2, 2010 at 17:32Reply

      We dont need Arabic, English, French or desert language to understand each other my friend.
      just we use FX language :-)

      Lets see where Big Fat Bertha (Choo Choo) wants to stop today? Stayinh above 1,40 is already a very good sign to me :-)

  34. Johnny
    November 2, 2010 at 18:21Reply

    @SAHARA Sorry my friend, nothing to do with you and the other (ole) guys….But I am out of here for good. (This time not coming back!) I have had it with this kind of remarks….(Really P… me off!)Been there before….
    Take good care on yourself Sahara and good luck to you.
    (Say hello to the other guys who did understand the real meaning being in here)

    • Profile photo of Simon S
      Simon S
      November 3, 2010 at 00:04Reply

      Johnny I felt the same. I don’t post much but kayus remarks to me about a month ago for a light-hearted comment made me say f* it to it all. You are generous with your opinions on the market and I think everyone appreciates it.

  35. Profile photo of sahara
    sahara
    November 2, 2010 at 18:29Reply

    let him @johnny every where in forum y wll find “guys” like that y are here with and for piphut let run my friend!!!

  36. Profile photo of John R
    John R
    November 2, 2010 at 19:52Reply

    How’s everyone doing. My Vegas trip was very fun. I also made 160 pips on my EUR and AUD longs while I was away there too…LOL. Not bad considering I had no internet access there.

    I have stood aside on Mon and Tues. Wed is when I will jump in. Obviously because that will set the trend.

    I’m 50/50 on whether it will be bear or bull. But I do know that Wed will be THE trendsetter, and that we can get over this whacky consolidation period over the last two weeks.

    So, jump in when you see it confirmed after FOMC minutes. If you want to avoid false breakout, wait for a pullback, and jump in later. But take it easy, as the next trend will be good for another 500 to 1000 pips. Plenty of opps.

  37. Profile photo of Kurt
    Kurt
    November 2, 2010 at 20:35Reply

    @Johnny You can’t let people get under your skin. You are a member of piphut not an appointed moderator, so you can comment with your opinion, and do not have to reply to everyone.

    I think this is why Mark comes and goes, and isn’t so regular on the boards as people would expect it.

    This is a melting pot of people from around the world on very different time zones, which makes it a great place to be. The new comers will come and go, and unfortunately some of the veterens get run off along the way.

    Hopefully you will reconsider as I enjoy your daily posts, and just ignore the ignorant.

  38. Profile photo of sahara
    sahara
    November 2, 2010 at 21:10Reply

    see y tomorrow have a good night and good day others in asia and and every where y are

  39. Celia
    November 3, 2010 at 03:32Reply

    @johnny,
    Don’t leave piphut. I will miss your valuable comments. I like yr witty style though I do not make any comments as I do not know how to contribute what with my little knowledge of FX. I am still learning from Piphut n the comments online. It will be very quiet without YOU. U are not oblige to response to anyone. If you do response it is a bonus to the person not a Duty!
    Pls stay in Piphut.

  40. hooman majidi
    November 4, 2010 at 06:12Reply

    hi guys …thanks for your good signal and your leading .we are proffisional but use your site and anothers for checking my technical analysis.thanks alot…. hooman majidi

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