Forex Signals – EUR/USD Bulls Keep on Marching

Daily Outlook: Welcome to March PipHut! No signal yesterday as the end of the month volatility is to be avoided whenever possible. Today we find ourselves again challenging 1.38600 - a strong resistance level from early February:

As shown on the chart above there are two key levels that we will be watching: 1.3860 and 1.3720.  In the 3840-3860 resistance zone we will be looking for bearish signals to enter short on, and in the 1.3720-3750 support zone (intraday support that has held twice now in the past few days) we will be looking for opportunities to get long.

On a break above 3860 we will look for the eventual march toward 1.40 to continue, and a break below 1.3720 will open up a re-challenge of the rising trend support at 1.3600. There is a mixed bag of news today, including a speech by Bernanke around 15:00 GMT that may jitter markets so say sharp. See the full news calendar.

Trading Idea: Primary trade is a long ON A DIP to 3720-3750 support zone with good confirmation and long targets at (from 3720) 3745, 3775, 3800 and 3830 for 110 pips. For those using CP make sure to check backtesting for high-probability target zones and TP/SL levels.

We are not big on going short at the moment (market is bullish), but 3860 is strong resistance and will be on the lookout for STRONG bearish confirmation if we see a RALLY to 3860 for an opportunity get short with targets at 3835, 3805, 3780 and 3750 for 110 pips.

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  1. Profile photo of PipHut Team
    PipHut Team
    March 1, 2011 at 04:50Reply

    P.S. I know the email alert went out saying “Monday’s Forex Signal” but just to be clear: this is Tuesday’s signal!

    • IaN
      March 1, 2011 at 05:03Reply

      thanks mark

  2. karthi
    March 1, 2011 at 05:12Reply

    now market is around 1.3800 and u give signal as (from 3720) 3745, 3775, 3800 and 3830 for 110 pips, so is this mondays signal or tuesdays signal?? Pls provide clear entry and exit.
    also provide signal everyday.

    • jean marie
      March 1, 2011 at 07:54Reply

      thanks every one, hi karthy. I hv been following marks, signal for years now, bt u know not all days r tradable. yesterday in particulat was. about the signal you spot the word dip. jst wait alittle I can see it desendinh towards that spot. enjoy your day.

  3. Jacshib
    March 1, 2011 at 05:20Reply

    @Karthi: This is a previllege, not a right. Read the analysis carefully again, Watch your charts and consider the 1st post on this page. I guess this is explicit enough.

  4. Profile photo of PipHut Team
    PipHut Team
    March 1, 2011 at 05:23Reply

    Hi Karthi, I am guessing you are new here. That is ON A DIP to 1.3720-3750. If you look at the chart you can clearly see where price currently is when signal is produced (around 1.3800) and the support drawn at 1.3720 (with two giant arrows coming out of it).

    Please read the “READ ME: HOW TO USE THESE SIGNALS”:
    http://piphut.com/help/read-me-how-to-use-piphuts-free-forex-signals/ as it goes over all of this.

  5. sunil
    March 1, 2011 at 05:26Reply

    Thanks Mark for Signal..

  6. Profile photo of iTech Trader
    iTech Trader
    March 1, 2011 at 05:30Reply

    @piphut, welcome back :)

  7. em
    March 1, 2011 at 05:47Reply

    @piphut, im a beginner too… does it mean you have to watch out on 3860 and 3720 signals if it will become bullish or bearish.. please correct me if im wrong..

  8. meks
    March 1, 2011 at 05:54Reply

    Good morning all

  9. eliakim
    March 1, 2011 at 05:56Reply

    with this sng can i trade with 100$

    • jean marie
      March 1, 2011 at 08:05Reply

      hi, I think u should consider money management rule 1: don’t net a house on onr position. bt if ur new to forex may be micro wld do, that’s wat I think

  10. Profile photo of lapadat radu
    lapadat radu
    March 1, 2011 at 05:57Reply

    Good morning

  11. sunil
    March 1, 2011 at 06:06Reply

    @forexlive.com
    Quick Review Of Order Board
    Cable: Talk of option barriers at 1.6300
    USD/CHF: Stops above .9335
    AUD/USD: Heavy sell orders 1.0200 through 1.0250; corporate bids not moving higher, still 1.0030/50
    EUR/USD: Solid selling interest reported 1.3860, 1.3875 and 1.3900/10; bids now starting at .3775

  12. Profile photo of Ramon Kaeter
    Ramon Kaeter
    March 1, 2011 at 06:19Reply

    @piphut. Thanks again Mark. Hope everyone were doing well. I guess aiming 100 pips for today is reasonable, south to north. Hope 1.37 will hold the bear. Tschuss.

  13. Profile photo of Johnny
    Johnny
    March 1, 2011 at 06:28Reply

    Wow…Thats early !!!!??? I havent even red it yet…:-) Thanks Mark… (O when the Saints go marching on hey? :-))

  14. Profile photo of Johnny
    Johnny
    March 1, 2011 at 06:34Reply

    @PIPHUT

    “including a speech by Bernanke around 15:00 GMT that may jitter markets so say sharp. See the full news calendar.”

    So STAY sharp ???

    Might need small correction there Mark… But I like to SAY that I am NOT sharp :-)

    • Profile photo of PipHut Team
      PipHut Team
      March 1, 2011 at 14:28Reply

      :) :), SAY sharp and STAY sharp, that’s my motto

  15. em
    March 1, 2011 at 07:18Reply

    whats happening? bears and bulls are slow..(-_-)

  16. Sakis
    March 1, 2011 at 08:12Reply

    G….M…. Traders
    I Missed you !!!!!!!!
    specialy JOHNY the great BELGE

  17. Sakis
    March 1, 2011 at 08:16Reply

    what hapent yesterday no forum?

  18. Profile photo of Johnny
    Johnny
    March 1, 2011 at 08:23Reply

    @Sakis – Yasu..Yes yesterday Mark had a headache (Because of us) I guess ? :-)

    3780 holded nicely, lets test 3840 rest. now first. If fails we’ll go down to around 3770 again, if not….Its up to test (and hopefully breach) 3860 ? My view :-)

  19. saharawiew
    March 1, 2011 at 08:23Reply

    gm all

    • Profile photo of Johnny
      Johnny
      March 1, 2011 at 08:25Reply

      @Sahara – Hello my friend. GL to you today…

      • saharawiew
        March 1, 2011 at 08:30Reply

        @johnny hi , good call yesterday for eu !!!thanks friend

  20. saharawiew
    March 1, 2011 at 08:24Reply

    as said yesterday for gu (hope y are in)

  21. em
    March 1, 2011 at 08:26Reply

    @piphut, thanks ^^

  22. saharawiew
    March 1, 2011 at 08:28Reply

    news in germany will move euro!!

  23. Meks
    March 1, 2011 at 08:29Reply

  24. Profile photo of Plamen
    Plamen
    March 1, 2011 at 08:33Reply

    Good morning/evening people. GL to all. Thanks Mark

  25. Profile photo of Plamen
    Plamen
    March 1, 2011 at 08:35Reply

    Goede morgen Johnny!

    • Profile photo of Johnny
      Johnny
      March 1, 2011 at 08:49Reply

      Buenas Dias Scanman :-)

  26. em
    March 1, 2011 at 08:39Reply

    3820-3850? hmm very risky

  27. saharawiew
    March 1, 2011 at 08:40Reply

    will try to trad news!

  28. saharawiew
    March 1, 2011 at 08:41Reply

    for 45 pips (order buy 3835)

  29. saharawiew
    March 1, 2011 at 08:43Reply

    and sell (3785)

  30. Profile photo of Johnny
    Johnny
    March 1, 2011 at 08:48Reply

    Due in abt 5 minutes…German Unemployment !!!

  31. sunil
    March 1, 2011 at 08:57Reply

    German February Final Manufacturing PMI 62.7
    Up fractionally from flash estimate of 62.6.

  32. sunil
    March 1, 2011 at 09:01Reply

    German February S.A Jobless Total Falls -52k To 3.069 Mln
    Much better than median forecast of -15k.
    Unemployment rate falls to 7.3% from 7.4% in January.

  33. Profile photo of Johnny
    Johnny
    March 1, 2011 at 09:10Reply

    Having Bulls with steel b.lls it seems at the moment, its risky going short (even with confirmation :-))

  34. sunil
    March 1, 2011 at 09:16Reply

    yes Johnny Thanks .

  35. sunil
    March 1, 2011 at 09:25Reply

    @Forexlive.com
    Middle East Sells EUR/USD
    Middle East sovereign seen selling EUR/USD in recent trade. We’re at 1.3830 from session high 1.3845.
    I have no confirmation of such, but I wouldn’t be surprised to hear they’re selling cable as well. Cable down at 1.6310 from session high 1.6328.

  36. Profile photo of Johnny
    Johnny
    March 1, 2011 at 10:15Reply

    Shorting Us/Ch might be interesting as well right now? Lets see… :-)

  37. Profile photo of Johnny
    Johnny
    March 1, 2011 at 10:20Reply

    An hourly close above 3860 and 1,40 is ours :-)

    • saharawiew
      March 1, 2011 at 10:28Reply

      y chek point 3860 (if broken) next one 3913

  38. saharawiew
    March 1, 2011 at 10:25Reply

    y have y reservation @johnny?

    • Profile photo of Johnny
      Johnny
      March 1, 2011 at 10:31Reply

      Made reservation, double room E/U 3950 (with JW) and Us/Ch 1st trgt 9200 (with Swiss Chocolates) :-)

  39. saharawiew
    March 1, 2011 at 10:32Reply

    nothing to drink!!

  40. Jos
    March 1, 2011 at 10:43Reply

    Hi there,

    I’m always this blog everyday but never comment. I just wanna let you guys know you’re helping me big time trading!! Especially the combination of Mark’s sugnal with ongoing comments of Johnny are extremely helpfull!!

    Just to let you guys know.

    Cheers,
    Jos

  41. Jos
    March 1, 2011 at 10:45Reply

    reading that is:)

  42. Profile photo of Johnny
    Johnny
    March 1, 2011 at 11:00Reply

    Sailing against the wind aint easy :-)

    • Kevin
      March 1, 2011 at 11:21Reply

      @johnny, Sailing againt the wind aint easy, but by far more fun

  43. Profile photo of Johnny
    Johnny
    March 1, 2011 at 11:30Reply

    Yep. you’re right Kevin….Sometimes you just have to let go….:-)

    How many roads must a man walk down,
    before you call him a man?
    How many seas must a white dove fly,
    before she sleeps in the sand?
    And how many times must a cannon ball fly,
    before they’re forever banned?

    The answer my friend is blowing in the wind,
    the answer is blowing in the wind.

  44. Profile photo of Levente
    Levente
    March 1, 2011 at 11:31Reply

    I want to see the primary trade my friends!
    Bernanke might helps with it.. : )

    • Profile photo of Johnny
      Johnny
      March 1, 2011 at 11:31Reply

      Lets first ride the 2ndary Iceman :-) More fun, more pips :-)

      • Profile photo of Levente
        Levente
        March 1, 2011 at 11:42Reply

        Your call, I’m prepared. Good to go anyways. Just lets move now somewhere!

  45. Kevin
    March 1, 2011 at 11:36Reply

    went sort at 3845, if it brakes though here i may be sailing down wind

  46. Profile photo of Johnny
    Johnny
    March 1, 2011 at 11:52Reply

    Same here at 3835 :-) Lets see Kevin if we can get down to 3750 and bounce back up from there again….I wanna see higher highs today :-)

  47. Kevin
    March 1, 2011 at 11:57Reply

    3750 and i will race you steam, but there is a log in the way and finding it abit hard to get pass

  48. Kevin
    March 1, 2011 at 11:57Reply

    up steam

  49. Profile photo of Johnny
    Johnny
    March 1, 2011 at 12:01Reply

    Still shorting Us/Ch as well. Might consider G/U short soon as well? Lets see?

  50. Kevin
    March 1, 2011 at 12:38Reply

    Johnny I may take a swim to the Bank 3775, if Pushes pass 3800,

  51. saharawiew
    March 1, 2011 at 12:55Reply

    candles in gu and eu (15 and 30 ) seems showing north !??

  52. em
    March 1, 2011 at 14:21Reply

    the market is still playing on 3800-3840.. can anyone give a lead?

  53. sunil
    March 1, 2011 at 15:15Reply

    What Can’t Go Up Must Go Down
    EUR/USD tried to make another run toward stops at 1.3865 but failed pretty miserably and soon scuttled lower, to 1.3795 so far.
    Looks like more choppy 1.3770/1.3860 near-term, with a slight downside bias if traders get bored holding longs….

  54. sunil
    March 1, 2011 at 15:30Reply

    @forexlive.com
    ISM’s Ore: $100 Oil Doesn’t Present Huge Problems
    The chairman of the ISM’s PMI committee, Norbert Ore, says oil prices are a risk but they are not a huge problem at $100 per barrel. Jobs are the best sentiment indicator, he says, and the employment index looks fantastic, he says. Keep in mind, he is talking about manufacturing jobs and that manufacturing accounts for something like 15% of GDP these days.
    EUR/USD is very choppy but continues to find buyers below 1.3800 and sellers above 1.3850…
    The market is very long of EUR/USD, so to me, the risk is for a selloff to clean the market’s palate a bit…I still like the idea of booking profits on longs on the approach of the Feb 14 high of 1.3860, keeping a core long that can be added to on dips…I don’t like the idea of out-right shorts in an uptrend…I never do, as long-time readers can attest.

  55. sunil
    March 1, 2011 at 15:35Reply

    Watch Bernanke Here
    http://www.cnbc.com/id/36000856

  56. Profile photo of iTech Trader
    iTech Trader
    March 1, 2011 at 15:45Reply

    Bernanke downplays oil inflation in prepared text
    Posted: 01 Mar 2011 07:07 AM PST
    He says it may cause temporary gain in inflation.

    Other highlights of the prepared text include:

    Sustained oil prices would threaten growth
    Fed monitoring commodity prices closely
    Job growth relatively weak
    Evidence of sustained consumer spending
    Somewhat rapid pace of growth in 2011
    Jobs only improve slightly
    Some optimism on jobs
    Unemployment may not return to normal for years
    Job growth essential
    Housing exceptionally weak
    QE has been effective

  57. saharawiew
    March 1, 2011 at 16:09Reply

    still long eu gu (add from low!!)

    • saharawiew
      March 1, 2011 at 16:21Reply

      even we have a bearish candle in 15 mn (will see next one)

  58. saharawiew
    March 1, 2011 at 16:39Reply

    the International Organisation of Migration in Geneva says tens of thousands have fled across the border into Tunisia ! the situation is very diffucult (it s my area)

  59. Profile photo of Chris
    Chris
    March 1, 2011 at 17:54Reply

    @piphut Thanks Mark for your continued support and direction during these wild markets…… didnt trade yesterday either, today took a short from 3815 on ss but with trailing stop due to clear bullish momentum. As usual I missed the major move during the Euro session but am waiting for a sufficient dip during US session to go long. Hope all is well with you all!

  60. Profile photo of Chris
    Chris
    March 1, 2011 at 18:00Reply

    Sl hit for +14 pips, long @ 3800? thoughts?

    • Profile photo of Levente
      Levente
      March 1, 2011 at 18:53Reply

      The biggest move is downward so asia brings more downside movement I think. My view.
      Still waiting for the Master’s primary trade! 3735/3750 long with confirmation of course.

  61. Profile photo of Chris
    Chris
    March 1, 2011 at 19:03Reply

    @iceman you’re probably right, lots more room to the downside, guess ill have to do another analysis when I get home :-)

  62. Profile photo of Johnny
    Johnny
    March 1, 2011 at 19:51Reply

    Could very well be 3710/20 strong support again that’s gonna hold this dip again? Wouldnt surprise me at all, 3715 is an ‘old friend’ of mine from last week :-)
    Lets see?

  63. Profile photo of Johnny
    Johnny
    March 1, 2011 at 20:06Reply

    Master Mark seems to be right again…Had some hopes on around present sup levels (3770) but Bulls have drunk some Beers I guess? :-) Still shorting E/U, G/U and Us/Ch which last one may close out soon?

  64. Profile photo of Johnny
    Johnny
    March 1, 2011 at 20:22Reply

    Closed Us/Ch and went Short Eu/Ch and just now, 1st target 2750, 2nd 2700…Lets see (Just my view!)

  65. Profile photo of iTech Trader
    iTech Trader
    March 1, 2011 at 20:55Reply

    my view is if we won’t go up from here and we went some more pips to the down to just break 1.3750 we will have very bearish moves later.

  66. Johnny
    March 1, 2011 at 21:32Reply

    Just closed my E/U short….Have a strange feeling we could see a turn around here? Lets see?

  67. Profile photo of Johnny
    Johnny
    March 2, 2011 at 07:09Reply

    Two U.S assault ships enter Egypt’s Suez Canal, on the way to Mediterranen.

  68. Profile photo of Johnny
    Johnny
    March 2, 2011 at 07:13Reply

    BAMAKO/KIDAL-the Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi recruits in the Sahara on a large scale young Tuaregs to fight for his tottering regime. This put Government officials in the northeast of Mali.

    According to them there is a whole organisation behind the migration of young Tuaregs to Libya, where they get money and weapons.

    ” We are very concerned, because regardless of whether Gaddafi WINS or loses, this has consequences for our future ”, said Abdou Salam Ag Assalat, Chairman of the Regional Assembly in Kidal in northeastern Mali.

    He fears the worst when the young people return with weapons and destabilize the region. The authorities try to counter the exodus and especially former rebels to deter to Libya to go but it is difficult.

    Air Travel

    ” Kaddafi’s long arm is at work here, he knows who to approach. They go into groups on a journey. Reportedly there are even air travel to Libya from Chad ”.

    The approximately 1.5 million Tuareg are nomadic Berbers who live in an area that is spread across Niger, Mali, Algeria, Libya and Burkina Faso. These Muslims are known to not women but men a veil their faces wear.

    The last decades came Tuareg Rebels several times in rebellion against the authorities in Mali and Niger.

  69. em
    March 2, 2011 at 07:27Reply

    good morning johnny.

  70. Profile photo of Johnny
    Johnny
    March 2, 2011 at 07:41Reply

    Morning EM. Seems the market is a bit ‘upset’ :-) Like its waiting for something? I know I am waiting for my coffee…But dont what the market is waiting for :-)
    Might go on sideways moving. If we could breach 3800 that would be nice, but think we’ll see 3715/30 sooner? Lets wait for Mark s signal? (Afterall, he was right again with the 2nddary option :-))
    GL

    • Profile photo of Rodica
      Rodica
      March 2, 2011 at 07:47Reply

      Morning, Johnny, thanks for info, GL

      • Profile photo of Johnny
        Johnny
        March 2, 2011 at 07:53Reply

        Hi there Rodica. Nice to see you again, hope all alright at the beautiful black see (Where only beautiful people are allowed to live :-))

        The Daily didnt close at such level that we need to worry we’ll be seeing 3600 soon :-) So although we ‘may’ pullback a bit more (?) I am still without doubt that 1,40 and above soon will be reached. Just my view.
        GL

        • Profile photo of Rodica
          Rodica
          March 2, 2011 at 08:05Reply

          Thanks, Johnny, kind of alright here , the sea very furious… i guess with government, myself, very busy but my husband is mostly here these days. Price action confusing, waiting for Mark’s guiding, works best for us

  71. em
    March 2, 2011 at 07:52Reply

    yeah. thanks to mark for having guides to earn more pips..^^

  72. Profile photo of iTech Trader
    iTech Trader
    March 2, 2011 at 08:08Reply

    we are in forming of double top for EU D1, cautions !! If We break 1.3860, we may get strong up move, but still see we may get more downside moves for now. My view :)

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