Forex Signals – EURUSD No QE3 Leads USD

Recap: Our short was activated at 1.33 on the support break yesterday (pro email signals sent out at 14:21 UTC) and came within 5 pips of hitting our 50 pip SL! Luckily it was just enough and we were able to quickly hit all targets for 95 pips profit. Remember - let your profits run and keep your losses small!

Today's Important News Events:

Date Time (UTC) Event Forecast Previous
Wed
Apr 4
09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) (FEB) -1.1% 0.0%
11:45 EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision (APR 4) 1.00% 1.00%
*To see a more extensive list of news events (not just those we consider important), visit our Forex Calendar.

The fed "announced" that it would not be providing further quantitative easing (money printing) in the near future as the markets have improved enough / inflation is enough of a concern to not warrant further liquidity at the time being.

The news is still bouncing around the markets, and had the immediate effect of rallying the USD in nearly all pairs (e.g. the big drop in EU). We believe this is a bearish break of the daily bearish consolidation pattern we have been watching bounce upward for weeks now and will be looking fr opportunities to get short.

Trading Idea: There is not currently a good short opportunity on the charts as the pair is oversold on the hourlies without a good support line to trade off of. We will wait for a support to form and break for an opportunity to get short with targets at 20/20/20/25 for 85 pips profit. PRO users will be emailed.

There is an aggressive falling resistance currently (last blue line) but, given the bearish break yesterday and the steep slope, we will pass on getting long on a resistance break. For aggressive traders that resistance break would provide a good entry point for a long.

 


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  1. Profile photo of sahara
    sahara
    April 4, 2012 at 06:06Reply

    gm @all

  2. Profile photo of sahara
    sahara
    April 4, 2012 at 06:16Reply

    was not good yesterday to follow short !! my last long at 3305 make me out (with sl 3250) and another lot too (when i said waiting 3343 again -20 pips !!) i took a few pips but the day was REdD (-30 pips in the end!!)………….there is a thing about @johnny comment he was glad for his short !! it s ok but does not mean OTHERS are “donkey or monkey” Every one here do as he like the chief is Mark signal and that s ALL !!!! you was short it s ok you have not travel to the moon !!!!!!!!!!!!

    • Profile photo of sadiq abubakar
      sadiq abubakar
      April 4, 2012 at 06:27Reply

      dat was yesterday @saharaview…..its @johnny’s personal opinion which i believe he is entitled to,however,pls lets move on and make pips like we always do….

      • Profile photo of sahara
        sahara
        April 4, 2012 at 06:42Reply

        yes as you said his comment was not in this side !!!!

  3. Harry
    April 4, 2012 at 06:30Reply

    saharaview
    I got hit nicely too! It was that US news at 7.00pm GMT that hit my longs hard I don’t normally trade the news just that I forgot about it. Anyone going long on euro or cable this morning?

  4. Profile photo of brunot45
    brunot45
    April 4, 2012 at 06:45Reply

    GM all

  5. Profile photo of smile
    smile
    April 4, 2012 at 06:50Reply

    GM @ all

  6. Dave
    April 4, 2012 at 06:52Reply

    I don’t get it. You have always talked about SUSTAINED BREAK. In yesterday picture i can’t see any…So, you are activating your trades “JUST” on a break, now ???

  7. Harry
    April 4, 2012 at 07:11Reply

    Is it a false breakout ! Probably

    I’m sure we’ll see some recovery upward towards the pivot point

  8. Profile photo of Jos
    Jos
    April 4, 2012 at 07:29Reply

    @Mark I don’t follow the recap. Went out the short at 16.00 utc candle close, false breakout as you teached me. Took my small loss…no problem. Let winners run, cut the losers.

    Now I am confused, after having my lessons learned (from piphut) you let it run after the false breakout and all targets met?? Do I miss here something?

  9. Profile photo of Jos
    Jos
    April 4, 2012 at 07:33Reply

    Anybody who can sort this out?

    • saharawiew
      April 4, 2012 at 07:41Reply

      i received this mail !! but was not in……………Commentaire laissé sur:
      Avril 3 2012 à 18:36
      saharaview dit:
      grrrrrrrrrrrrrr même
      alerte PRO
      ***************
      Paire: EURUSD
      Type: briser le soutien
      S / R Niveau: 1.3314
      Prix Alerte: 1,3304
      Heure d’alerte: 03/04/2012 18:03:18
      Pour voir S / R des graphiques ou modifier votre notification
      paramètres connecter à votre compte PRO à PipHut

      • Profile photo of Jos
        Jos
        April 4, 2012 at 07:43Reply

        Nope, that’s not the one I mean. I mean the following:

        PRO Alert

        ***************

        Pair: EURUSD
        Type: Support break
        S/R Level: 1.331
        Alert Price: 1.33
        Alert Time: 2012-04-03 14:21:19

        • saharawiew
          April 4, 2012 at 07:47Reply

          yes i understand second one just after pomc !!!

          • Profile photo of Jos
            Jos
            April 4, 2012 at 08:01

            So the recap is not good, should be out at -35 pips 1.3335 and back in for 95 pips. Total 60+ pips??

            I didn’t trade the news, been there done that, I had a much better entry on the first 1.3311 so a loss for me 24 pips.

            Still confused why “trade with piphut” rules are not followed yesterday by piphut self….?!

          • Profile photo of sahara
            sahara
            April 4, 2012 at 08:08

            i understand ! but @Mark will answer you !!

  10. Profile photo of sahara
    sahara
    April 4, 2012 at 08:06Reply

    if some one in euro yen there is a nice entry long 108.6 to hope 111

  11. Profile photo of sahara
    sahara
    April 4, 2012 at 08:24Reply

    follow this 30 eu !!

    • Profile photo of sahara
      sahara
      April 4, 2012 at 08:29Reply

      we need it 3197 to see first 3223

  12. star
    April 4, 2012 at 08:29Reply

    anybody long on Eu/Usd

    • Profile photo of sahara
      sahara
      April 4, 2012 at 08:32Reply

      if 3175/78 area yes will trY 3223

  13. Profile photo of sahara
    sahara
    April 4, 2012 at 08:41Reply

    in 3183 to 3201

    • Profile photo of sahara
      sahara
      April 4, 2012 at 08:43Reply

      closed 10 pips

      • Profile photo of sahara
        sahara
        April 4, 2012 at 08:45Reply

        entry again here

        • Profile photo of sahara
          sahara
          April 4, 2012 at 08:45Reply

          this for 3213

          • Profile photo of sahara
            sahara
            April 4, 2012 at 09:01

            my SL 3154

          • Profile photo of sahara
            sahara
            April 4, 2012 at 11:04

            out!!

  14. star
    April 4, 2012 at 08:58Reply

    where is the stop loss

  15. Profile photo of sahara
    sahara
    April 4, 2012 at 10:24Reply

    in ej !!for 111 let it work

    • ran
      April 4, 2012 at 10:57Reply

      hello sahara

      Closed your long?
      Yesterday I had a horrible trading day, my weekly analysis was a touch to resistance to 1,3391…before the jump to 1,3450..but my support was supposed to hold @ 1,3264…put my sl about 25 pips under this…1,3240- then received a message as i was not home for that big drop closing me out ….rrrr..now price is around 1,3262 my “support” …pulled a long ..lets see if thast the buttom for now??

  16. Etycee
    April 4, 2012 at 10:31Reply

    I made $41 on a micro lot of 0.04 yesterday. Could someone please tell me how many pips that was. Thanks, I appreciate this forum as I continue to learn here.

    • Jos
      April 4, 2012 at 10:43Reply

      10 cents a pip / microlot * 4 = 0.40 dollar / 41 = 102.5 pips

    • Profile photo of sahara
      sahara
      April 4, 2012 at 11:00Reply

      150 pips

  17. lkakuszi2
    April 4, 2012 at 11:19Reply

    this is it for me, I’m no longer bullish ;)

  18. lkakuszi2
    April 4, 2012 at 11:35Reply

    although this is in fact the very last point where I’d consider a long, seeing that it’s a 38.2 of the move up from last month’s low to april’s highs, but I’m not taking it at this point…

  19. Etycee
    April 4, 2012 at 11:36Reply

    @piphut, thanks so much. I now see the difference between Standard and Micro: 102.5*10=$1025-41 wow! $984!!. Anyway, I shall get there.

  20. Profile photo of Jim
    Jim
    April 4, 2012 at 11:50Reply

    So now the 80 day ema has crossed the 20 and 10 ema line and we’ll correct to about the 38% Fibo retracement level before we take the next nose dive… jmho

  21. star
    April 4, 2012 at 12:34Reply

    where is the support now.? any push up levels?

  22. Tenkis
    April 4, 2012 at 12:51Reply

    1.31 coul be short term support.It can make 10-15 pips at lest

  23. Profile photo of Jim
    Jim
    April 4, 2012 at 13:37Reply

    lol… now we have Draghi out of the way so we correct ….. I’m thinking 3190 for a decent short with a drawdown of about 30 pips… any thoughts

  24. Profile photo of Jim
    Jim
    April 4, 2012 at 13:42Reply

    I really have to laugh at the level these FED heads will go to serve their masters ( specifically G&S)…. do they really expect us to belive this :DD

    “ECB’S DRAGHI: ECB is not purchasing bonds like others and is not doing QE. ECB is lending money based on collateral.

    roflmao

  25. Profile photo of Jim
    Jim
    April 4, 2012 at 13:52Reply

    jmho…easy to get sucked into a short trap here… UCHF around 9150 should be about right…

  26. Profile photo of Jim
    Jim
    April 4, 2012 at 14:27Reply

    short EU and UCHF…. hedge..if UCHF breaks below 9150 I’m out

  27. Profile photo of Jim
    Jim
    April 4, 2012 at 14:41Reply

    imho eu can be sold on UCHF pullbacks to the 9150 area and covered around UCHF 9170… a break of either side invalidates the scalps and maybe longer term trades

    hope this helps :)

  28. Profile photo of Jim
    Jim
    April 4, 2012 at 14:49Reply

    a break of UCHF high today will send EU into a tail spin jmho

  29. Profile photo of Jim
    Jim
    April 4, 2012 at 14:53Reply

    long on eu…unless UCHF breaks the days high

  30. Profile photo of Jim
    Jim
    April 4, 2012 at 15:04Reply

    kinda lonely in here :)

  31. Profile photo of smile
    smile
    April 4, 2012 at 15:17Reply

    Where’s Johnny saharaview and Luxma guys

    • Profile photo of sahara
      sahara
      April 4, 2012 at 18:07Reply

      hi @smile was away for job !!

  32. Profile photo of Jim
    Jim
    April 5, 2012 at 04:23Reply

    The fundamentals behind the dollar have had two good days of improvement, and the currency has certainly benefited from the unusual, positive outlook. Between an improved rate standing and revived risk trend consideration, can the greenback find a sustainable bull trend? That is a question that carries implications not just for the single currency but for speculative positioning across all assets in the global financial web. Tuesday evening, FX traders were running on the news that the Fed was not drawing up immediate plans to expand its stimulus effort – curbing expectations for a large buyer to float capital markets ever higher and stabilizing the unnatural decrease in value for the US currency through inflating the money supply. This certainly has deeper implications over time, but the volatility impact through the short-term was bound to be short (it will be some time before US rates really pick up). Another catalyst was needed to keep the US dollar moving: risk aversion.

    Sentiment trends are a constant force in the currency market, but its influence waxes and wanes with the intensity of its change. In other words, to play to the dollar’s risk aversion appeal, we needed a deleveraging drive. That is what we found this past session. The S&P 500 (my favored benchmark for risk trends – especially since it seems to be outperforming other sentiment-sensitive barometers), notched its second largest daily loss this year in a move that pulled the index back below 1400. Now, a step closer to truly provoking a true bear phase, market participants are forced to entertain a scenario where rapid deleveraging kicks in. To ensure that trend is engaged, we need a clear driver – so there is no ambiguity and the majority deems it time to book profit. This past session held the disappointing Chinese trade figures and IMS service sector activity report, but it was likely he combination of the Fed’s and ECB’s hold on support that really unnerved traders.

    That said, closing the tap on two large buyers may not be enough to transition us from a market ‘levels off’ to one that unwinds. We need catalysts and volume to supply that. The NFPs is something of a lackluster draw on the volatility front and speculative interest will thin out for the extended holiday weekend. Without a panicked drive, we may have to wait until next week’s 1Q US earnings and Chinese GDP numbers.

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